Stage M2: Impact of megafires on the equilibrium of forest ecosystems: simulation and study of a numerical model

Niveau : Master 2

In an international context characterized by a significant increase in extreme climatic events, the preservation of terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems is a major societal challenge. The scientific community is being called upon to produce a better understanding of the complex mechanisms that threaten their equilibrium, notably to help implement mitigation and adaptation solutions. In particular, tropical, temperate and boreal forest ecosystems are highly impacted by megafires.
These events destabilize forest ecosystems, which represent a biodiversity reserve, a carbon sink, and an economic resource.
The TOUNDRA research project (Mathematical modeling and analysis of boreal forests vulnerability to climate change: a hybrid approach), founded by the National Research Agency, proposes to study the stability of boreal forest ecosystems in response to climate change, using a hybrid modeling approach aimed at reproducing the biological dynamics of forests disturbed by megafires. The project therefore revolves around a mathematical model obtained by coupling a
system of differential equations describing forest dynamics, with a discrete probabilistic process modeling the impact of megafires. The details of the model are given in the following articles: [CDF23], [CDF21] and [KABA94]. This Master’s internship is fully in line with this research project.

[CDF21]Guillaume Cantin, Arnaud Ducrot, and Beatriz M Funatsu. Mathematical modeling of forest ecosystems by a reaction–diffusion–advection system: impacts of climate change and deforestation. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 83(6):66, 2021.

[CDF23]Guillaume Cantin, Benoît Delahaye, and Beatriz M Funatsu. On the degradation of forest ecosystems by extreme events: Statistical model checking of a hybrid model. Ecological Complexity, 53:101039, 2023.

[KABA94] Yu A Kuznetsov, M Ya Antonovsky, VN Biktashev, and EA Aponina. A cross-diffusion model of forest boundary dynamics. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 32:219–232, 1994.

guillaume.cantin@univ-nantes.fr

benoit.delahaye@univ-nantes.fr